Pension Gap of $1 Trillion Is ‘Daunting’ Bill to U.S. States

Pension Gap of $1 Trillion Is ‘Daunting’ Bill to U.S. States
By Darrell Preston and Nanette Byrnes

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. states must contend with a more than $1 trillion gap between what they have saved and what they have promised to retired workers for pension and health-care benefits, the Pew Center on the States said in a report today.

States have saved $2.35 trillion of the $3.35 trillion owed to workers as of mid-2008, the center said. The Washington-based group expects the deficit to grow because of investment losses states sustained in the second half of 2008, the report said.

Illinois,Connecticut and New Jersey were among the 16 lowest-ranked in terms of funding pension and retiree health care, according to Pew. The gap reflects “states’ own policy choices and lack of discipline” in failing to set aside enough money and expanding benefits without deciding how to pay for it, the report said.

“States don’t manage this liability and the costs continue to go up,” said Susan Urahn, managing director for the Pew Center, in a conference call with reporters yesterday. “States will either have to make cuts in other priorities or raise taxes.”

Local governments’ borrowing costs in the U.S. municipal bond market may rise because companies that grade the debt factor in the liability, said Urahn. Investors seek higher yields when ratings are lower to compensate for the perception of greater risk.

$3 Trillion

The gap that Pew calculated may be one-third that estimated by Orin S. Kramer, chairman of New Jersey’s State Investment Council and manager of Boston Provident Partners, a hedge fund. Kramer projected a $2 trillion unfunded liability for public pension funds and a $1 trillion gap for health-care benefits for retired public employees, according to a January commentary published by Bloomberg.

Under funding of pensions has been cited in rating cuts or negative outlooks for Connecticut, Nevada and New Jersey, said Edith Behr, a senior credit officer with Moody’s Investors Service.

“States have less money to pay for services that are absolutely expected,” Behr said in an interview. “It’s when you get to times like this when you start having to make some of the tough choices, cutting back services, cutting back staff, raising taxes.”

Urahn called the pension gap “perhaps the most daunting” of all the bills that will come due for states and municipalities. The full payment for plans the study looked at was $108 billion last year, compared with spending of $152 billion on higher education. Florida, Idaho, New York and North Carolina entered the recession with fully funded pensions, the report said. Twenty states have saved nothing for future obligations for health care and other benefits.

California’s Obligations

California, the most-populous U.S. state, owes $51.8 billion for future retiree health and dental costs, an increase of $3.6 billion from a year earlier, said state controller John Chiang in a press release Feb. 9. At the same time the state faces a budget deficit of $20 billion over the next 18 months.

The state can’t ignore its promised benefits “even as we try to claw our way out of the recession and provide needed cash to the state’s coffers,” Chiang said in a statement.

Fitch Ratings, which hasn’t seen states cutting back on funding pensions, is monitoring for such steps because of the tendency by states to trim contributions in past recessions, Richard Raphael, an analyst with Fitch, said in an interview.

Illinois sold bonds last month to cover its pension liability.